The World Market for Home and Garden

Delivery

This report comes in PPT.

Key Findings

Multiple macroeconomic factors constrain demand, now and ongoing

This is not exhaustive, but home and garden sales are linked to time spent at home, socialising occasions brought into the home, home transactions and house moves, the interest rates both for mortgages and financing of big-ticket purchases, and future income and economic confidence. Almost all drivers are negative, with sales stagnating at USD1,208,350 million (-1% versus 2023).

Growth means exposure to specific product types, geographies and channels

In a declining industry, opportunity sizing revolves on pockets of growth. In product terms, this is about gardening categories and home paint. In geographic terms, the focus is India, Brazil and to a lesser extent, China. In channel terms, this is about e-commerce and winning against the noise of marketplaces. Differentiation growth in developed markets wins larger slices of shrinking pies.

The strongest winners remarkably go against product type expectations

Many of the fastest growing companies globally are furniture specialists, a category with one of the weakest demand performances. Man Wah Holdings near doubled in size in the last five years and has one of the best results of 2024; this success story is about exposure to growth and expansion, but it is also about winning on living space dissatisfaction and smart technology integrations.

Demographics increasingly push caution for the long-term forecast

Examining stagnation out to 2029 (the overall expectation is -0.1% CAGR 2024-2029 in constant terms), one reason behind this figure is the birth rate fall in 2020, an acceleration of the existing trend. This really reshapes demographics and age bands inside the five-year forecast horizon. Child-orientated products face demand decline, and older demographics must be better serviced.

Indoor plants is the exemplar for growth that basks in the wellness trend

Gardening is a growth driver, focused on emerging markets, and linking to e-commerce as one of the ways so many start-ups were able to scale. The core reason behind the figures however is deeper - this rise in gardening is one way our greater effort and interest for physical, mental and emotional wellbeing has manifest. To a degree, more indoor plants now equal a healthier home.