The GLP-1 Revolution: Insights for Food and Beverages

Delivery

This report comes in PPT.

Key Findings

Tens of millions of people worldwide will start taking GLP-1s as costs fall and new benefits are found

The GLP-1 revolution has only just begun. The expiration of patents on semaglutide in much of the world in 2026, the development of pill forms and the overcoming of supply bottlenecks will make these drugs massively more affordable and available, and that will lead to a huge increase in their global users in the next few years. Additional health benefits such as reduced risk of heart or kidney disease being discovered combined with cost decreases also mean a growing likelihood of governments and insurance companies offering coverage.

GLP-1s are primarily an accelerant for trends that would otherwise still exist

The primary importance of GLP-1s is in supercharging trends that already exist; volume growth problems in developed markets, high interest in protein, gut-health as an emergent functional space, lower rates of alcohol consumption, etc. This will allow sceptics to discount their importance, but their impact will be very real.

Volumes in most segments are going to decline with rising GLP-1 usage

The core truth of GLP-1 users is that they consume fewer calories. This means that, on average, they will be a persistent drag on volume growth for most food and beverage categories in the years ahead. There will be a limited number of net gain categories (produce, yoghurt), some that might balance out with reformulations and innovation (ready meals), but most will simply see declines.

Innovation should appeal to both GLP-1 users and non-users

Because GLP-1 users will look for many of the same things as other wellness-minded consumers, innovation aimed at them will be best achieved with products that can appeal to wide audiences. This also aligns innovation with groups that are not actively using but still influenced by these drugs in some way, notably the very large group of former or intermittent users that exists because of people using GLP-1s for only short periods.