In the coming decade, the central challenge confronting the food and beverage industry in North America is the minimal prospect for volume growth. Perpetually low and falling fertility rates, sharpening anti-migrant sentiment, expanding GLP-1 usage, and the enduring impact of price increases have combined to create a situation where if aggregate calorie consumption at a regional level has not already begun to fall, it will start to in the near future. How to respond to this challenge ran through the strategies discussed by the food and beverage companies gathered at the annual conference of the Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY).
Premiumisation remains possible, but the window is narrowing
Where possible, the preferred option is still to push consumers towards more premium products. However, companies have lost a great deal of pricing power in recent years in categories like soft drinks, so this is going to be much harder than before.
In addition, “less but better” came through most strongly from the two alcoholic drinks companies that presented (Diageo and Molson Coors), highlighting that the second way premiumisation still works is in indulgent products where consumers feel they are getting bang for their buck. Snack food companies like Mondelez are also thinking along these lines, especially as the high price of cocoa limits their room to manoeuvre on price.
Focusing onto growing demographics
While topline consumption may be set to fall, there remain numerous sub-groups whose consumption can still grow, and an intensified focus on one or more of those also makes a great deal of sense as a strategy. GLP-1 users came up repeatedly at CAGNY as an expanding group, and for brands able to address their specific needs (high protein, high fibre, hydration) there is certainly promise there. Others mentioned Gen Z, older consumers, and Hispanics as demographics gaining in spending power. Likely no brand can speak to all of these effectively at once, so strategies will focus on which specific sub-groups most align with a brand’s core identity.
The next phase of pet humanisation
While the human population may not be increasing all that quickly, the pet population still is and thanks to pet humanisation trends, pet food is closer to human food than ever before
Source: Euromonitor International
Many companies are therefore exploring investing more heavily into their pet care brands or even moving their human brands into new species (JM Smucker has been using its Jif brand for dog treats recently, for example). Looking at the term “consumer” in a broader sense therefore may open volume growth prospects that are otherwise not there.
Finding emerging markets resilient to geopolitical storms
Of course, there remains plenty of volume growth potential at the global level. That will come nearly exclusively from developing markets which, though attractive, come with new challenges in a global environment rocked by geopolitical shifts, trade barriers being thrown up, and supply chains under threat. India stands out in this landscape as the most important emerging market of the future. Economic growth that has stayed steady even as many BRIC peers have fallen into trouble, a burgeoning middle class with spending power multiple CAGNY presenters called out, and a non-aligned foreign policy likely to keep it free of being drawn into geopolitical trouble make India a focal point for many companies’ global strategies.
The future: Strategy mix must shift
There is no single solution to the volume problem, so most companies will engage in some mix of the above strategies. Regardless of what route they eventually take, it is clear the pre-pandemic playbook is not going to work anymore.
For further analysis on where global food sales growth will come from, please see the Euromonitor article, Global Food Demand: The Sources of Future Growth.