Your mid-year outlook for the global economy in 2025. Find the latest projections for GDP growth and inflation to support your strategy and scenario planning.
A macro model helps you better understand economic risks in target markets—if you know how to use this analytical tool for effective scenario planning. Let’s review the impact of two scenarios that are top of mind for business leaders.
President Trump’s tariffs are a strategy, what the President refers to as a “medicine”, to break the US addiction to low-cost manufacturing which is part of generating the trade deficit with China. Using cookware as an example for data specifics, we can show how tariff policies imply double-digit inflationary pressure is landing in 2025 and show why investment in India is heating up.
Watch this panel to unpack the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the global trade landscape. You’ll gain insights to help you operate in today’s volatile economy as policy shifts continue at speed.
The imposition of a host of new tariffs by the US is already beginning to impact global trade flows. This development is expected to have a significant impact on the retail industry, especially in terms of the performance of the retail e-commerce channel. This article explores how the new tariff regime could change the face of the retail and e-commerce landscape over the next few years.
Since 2019, Shein has grown explosively to rank as the world’s fourth largest apparel brand by 2024, generating USD21 billion in sales (fixed 2024 exchange rates), with 35% from the US. Amid evolving US trade policies and intensifying competition from both Chinese rivals and Western giants, Shein is pivoting strategically: strengthening its footprint beyond the US, diversifying its supply chain, and refining its pricing model to adapt to the elimination of de minimis trade exemptions.
Trump’s tariffs are reshaping international trade, disrupting supply chains and creating challenges for businesses. How could this impact your company? Watch now.
The first 100 days of a US Presidency typically set the tone for the future administration. President Trump’s second term has started with chaos and uncertainty, marked by a global trade war, financial market turmoil, an increased risk of recession, spending and federal government cuts as well as threats of mass deportation. We present a summary of Euromonitor’s analysis published since Trump’s re-election, representing the uncertainty and rapid policy shifts at the time. Despite the turbulence, agile businesses can still find opportunities as global supply chains and consumer behaviour evolve.
US consumer foodservice relies on undocumented workers and imported food. This makes it uniquely vulnerable to Trump’s promise to expel record numbers of immigrants and impose tariffs on US allies.
With US President Donald Trump’s second term officially beginning from January 2025, momentum is building around significant changes to US trade policy, specifically around higher tariffs and restrictions aimed at reducing the US’s trade deficits.
Changes in the US trade policy impact a broad range of trade partners and goods and adds more uncertainty to the global economy. US importers have limited trade diversification potential, with higher trade tariffs leading to higher inflationary pressures. Retaliatory tariffs would also hurt US exporters, especially in commodity and automotive industries.
The global economy has started 2025 on a firm footing, on the back of easing inflation, improving financial conditions and a resilient performance by the US economy. Nevertheless, the outlook is fragile, with key risks stemming from heightened policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, compelling businesses to adapt their operations and supply chains for potential policy and economic shifts.
The re-election of Donald Trump poses fresh challenges for Chinese automotive manufacturers, as proposed steep tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and parts – in addition to the 100% tariff on EVs and 25% tariff on lithium-ion EV batteries put in place by the Biden administration in 2024 – are set to further disrupt EV supply chains. This necessitates strategic pivots by Chinese automakers that will reshape the industry.
In 2025, global economies, businesses and consumers will encounter renewed challenges and opportunities, driven by sluggish economic and income growth, potential global trade disruptions during Donald Trump’s second presidency, and a booming mature consumer market.
China is losing its position as the largest supplier of manufactured goods to the US market, with Mexico and other Asian countries emerging as alternative suppliers. Mexico, India, Vietnam and Thailand are becoming more important in the US trade structure, particularly in the industrial sectors producing critical goods, such as electronic components.
Potential policy changes under a renewed Trump presidency could have far-reaching effects on the US and global economies. Proposed tax cuts may deliver short-term boosts to investment and income in the US but risk creating medium- and long-term challenges. Immigration and trade policy shifts are likely to drive higher inflationary pressures domestically and globally, while increased tariffs could disrupt international trade and accelerate efforts by companies to de-risk and diversify supply chains.
What's the global economic outlook for 2025? And how will current projections impact consumer spending power or business opportunities? Find those answers in our webinar. Watch now.
The US is approaching a presidential election in November 2024. The outcome of the election will shape the country’s future fiscal, monetary and trade policies, which will in turn influence the growth trajectory of the world’s largest economy, while having spillover effects globally.