Forecasting company growth is harder than ever, especially in uncertain or volatile environments.
Trade policy shifts, currency fluctuations, inflation and changing consumer behaviour are just a few forces disrupting business trajectories. How can you effectively plan without a clear, data-driven view of where your (or your competitors’) growth has come from and where it’s headed?
A breakdown of company growth decomposition
To make sound decisions about where to invest or divest, you need a clear understanding of past trends. Growth decomposition is a powerful analytical method that dissects a company’s topline performance, breaking it down into distinct growth drivers, such as volume changes, price effects, category dynamics, geographic contributions and market share shifts.
Let’s take L'Oréal Groupe as an example. In the US, the company’s beauty and personal care sales rose from USD17 billion in 2023 to USD17.8 billion in 2024—a net increase of USD846 million. But where did that growth come from?
While partly driven by market share gains in categories where L'Oréal competes, the majority of growth (73%) was attributed to market momentum and inflation based on our company growth outlook dashboard. This refers to broader external forces—like increased overall consumer spending in the category (momentum) and price increases due to inflation—that lift a company’s performance even when market share remains unchanged. 
On the other hand, growth from strategic market share gains might indicate stronger competitive positioning. This becomes even more meaningful when benchmarked against competitors—share gains may appear small in isolation but signal outperformance if peers are stagnant or declining under the same conditions.
Historical analysis is essential but only answers part of the equation. For most leaders, the bigger question is: where will growth come from next?
Forecasting company growth with category and scenario analysis
To plan effectively, you need more than a snapshot of total market growth. You also need clarity on where company growth is likely to come from, and that begins with looking closely at the specific categories those companies compete in.
Why is this important? A company’s future performance depends not just on overall market expansion but also exposure to high- or low-growth categories and competitors. A category experiencing strong overall growth doesn’t always translate to significant company-level gains—just as a smaller category can become a major growth driver if the company holds a strong position in it.
Take Nestlé in the UK, for example. While chocolate confectionery is forecast to grow by nearly USD1 billion from 2024 to 2029, Nestlé’s sales for this category are only projected to contribute USD171 million over the same period, according to our company growth outlook dashboard. Other food categories also show relatively modest growth from Nestlé over the same period.
In contrast, cat and dog food—with smaller overall category growth of USD398 million and USD363 million, respectively—are expected to deliver a combined USD320 million in growth for Nestlé. This reflects the company’s stronger market share and strategic focus in pet care, making these categories key growth drivers despite lower overall expansion.
Turning insights into agile action
Growth decomposition, category forecasting and scenario-based projections contribute to a clearer strategic roadmap, so you can plan smarter and adapt faster.
Whether you’re determining investments, evaluating competitive benchmarks or strengthening your company’s financial position, our data analytics guide you through uncertainty—and help you make decisions with confidence. Let’s talk about your next step towards smarter, evidence-based growth.
